Macro Regime Telemetry & Psychometric Circuit Breakers

Regime-Aware Capital Safeguards

Quantitative sports strategies decay during flatlined volatility regimes — mid-season dips when weather variance spikes or fatigued bullpens generate unpredictable late-inning flips. Operating at full unit size through these periods risks severe drawdowns. Bodhi implements two automated circuit breakers: a macro telemetry daemon for league-wide volatility and a psychometric slump detector for personal losing streaks.

Macro Regime Daemon

macro-regime-daemon.ts ingests completed MLB box scores via the ESPN scoreboard API, counts 7th-inning-or-later lead changes per slate, and maintains a rolling 3-day history in macro_regime_state.json. When the rolling average drops below 0.5 (baseline healthy state: ~1.8), the daemon fires a REGIME_FLATLINED Telegram alert advising percentage-based risk reduction:

const ALERT_THRESHOLD = 0.5;

// Count lead changes in innings 7+
if (newLeader !== currentLeader && currentLeader !== 'TIE' && newLeader !== 'TIE') {
    if (i >= 6) lateInningLeadChanges++;
}

if (state.history.length === 3 && rollingAvg < ALERT_THRESHOLD) {
    await sendTelegramAlert(
        `🚨 *REGIME_FLATLINED* 🚨\n3-Day Rolling Avg: *${rollingAvg.toFixed(2)}*\nReduce unit sizing. Avoid trailing-favorite angles.`,
        'Markdown'
    );
}

Psychometric Slump Mode

BodhiPrism.checkSlump() evaluates the last 5 settled bets in Supabase. If the trader has 3 consecutive losses or 4 losses in the last 5, the system enters Slump Mode and throttles all model-suggested stakes by 50% (multiplier: 0.5):

const last3Losses = recentBets.slice(0, 3).every(b => b.result === 'loss');
const last5Slump = recentBets.length === 5 && lossCount >= 4;

if (last3Losses || last5Slump) {
    return { isSlump: true, multiplier: 0.5, reason: "SLUMP DETECTED: Stakes throttled by 50%." };
}

The macro daemon catches environmental regime shifts before they eat the bankroll; slump mode catches personal variance clusters — together they remove discretionary tilt from sizing decisions.